Atlantic Tropical Disturbance (#95L) is struggling to organize – odds of development decreasing

The small Tropical Disturbance we’ve been following across the tropical Atlantic has a defined circulation, but the dry, dusty atmosphere and the system’s quick forward speed are not letting it consolidate. The disturbance is producing a cluster of thunderstorms, but only on its leading side, and there are no signs they are trying to wrap around the center.

A large plume of Saharan Dust covers much of the tropical Atlantic and extends to South Florida and the southern Gulf of Mexico. The dry air absorbs moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and inhibits the growth of thunderstorm cells in a tropical system’s circulation. It takes a strong and usually large disturbance to pull enough moisture along with it to counter the dust.

This disturbance is quite small, which means it has to find a moist enough patch of atmosphere to operate. Small systems can spin up in a hurry if the atmospheric environment is otherwise conducive. The atmosphere ahead of this disturbance and the swift flow across the Atlantic would seem to be negative factors, however.

On the current schedule, the disturbance, or whatever it becomes, will arrive in the southeastern Caribbean islands about Tuesday. It looks unlikely that there’s time or opportunity for the system to develop into a significant storm. But everyone in the islands should stay well informed just to be sure nothing unexpected happens.

The upper winds over the Caribbean Sea are forecast to become hostile, so the system doesn’t appear to be a threat in the long term.

Far to the north, Tropical Storm Don perked up yesterday and briefly reached hurricane strength – the first of the 2023 Hurricane Season. It’s now weakening and will die out soon in the cold North Atlantic.

There are no other threats on the horizon for this week. We’ll watch systems coming off Africa next week as we move closer to August and the real beginning of the hurricane season.